UK Treasury Models 2027 GDP Growth as Low as 0.3% if Hormuz Disruption Persists

3-line summary

• UK Treasury internal modeling presented to the prime minister and chancellor suggests UK GDP growth could be as low as 0.3% in 2027 if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues through the end of 2026, as first reported by Bloomberg, according to a BBC report.
• The UK economy had a strong start to the year, but growth faltered as the Iran war pushed up oil and fuel prices and disrupted supply chains; official Q2 GDP figures are due Thursday, with economists expecting 0.4% growth.

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