Copper Squeeze Breathes New Life Into Old Mines

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• London Metal Exchange copper hit a record $14,875 a ton on September 10, up sharply from $4,705 at end-2015, per Investing.com; S&P Global Energy projects global copper demand will rise roughly 50% to 42 million tons a year by 2040, driven by the energy transition and data-center buildout. Reviving old mines is faster than building new ones (which take an average of 17 years) since they come with existing infrastructure, known ore bodies and permitting history.
• Examples cited: Sibanye-Stillwater approved restarting Tasmania's Mt Lyell mine (idle 12 years after a 2014 accident) in September, investing about $340 million for a targeted 26,000 tons/year by 2029 (at an estimated cost of $5,644/ton); Zambia's Luanshya mine (majority owned by CNMC) resumed partial production in an upper zone idle over 20 years, targeting 100,000 tons/year by 2030; Glencore plans to restart Argentina's Alumbrera mine (closed 2018) in the second half of 2027 to support the nearby Agua Rica project; and Papua New Guinea's Bougainville-based Panguna mine, shut since a 1989 civil war, is being pushed for a restart by the government, though its camp was attacked last month. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates restarts could add about 1 million tons/year by 2030 (over 4% of current output), but S&P sees a structural shortfall of up to 10 million tons even accounting for restarts and expansions; Wood Mackenzie notes restarted mines average only about 33,000 tons/year versus 100,000+ for expansion projects, and flags risks including flooding, aging equipment, old waste dams, protests and tighter environmental rules.

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