United Airlines Forecasts Fourth-Quarter Profit Below Estimates as Fuel Costs Bite

3-line summary

• United Airlines reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.54, slightly below the $2.57 analyst estimate, on revenue growth of 17.4%; corporate-travel revenue rose 26%, premium revenue 17%, and basic-economy revenue 16%, while fuel costs jumped 62% ($1.85 billion) year-over-year as capacity grew just 1.3%.
• For the fourth quarter, United guided to adjusted EPS of $0.50-$1.50, with the $1.00 midpoint about 43% below the $1.76 LSEG analyst consensus; the company assumed jet-fuel prices of $4.80 per gallon, about 45 cents above market consensus, which it said would cut EPS by roughly $1.
• Revenue is still expected to grow more than 20% year-over-year in Q4, an acceleration from Q3's 17.4%, and US airfares rose about 23% year-over-year from July through September, but the gains were not enough to offset the fuel-cost shock; rival Delta also cited roughly $6 billion in higher fuel costs and cut its annual outlook by about 25%, with US airlines' fuel spending for January-August 2026 reaching $42.9 billion, up $13.2 billion from a year earlier.

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